A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Daniil Medvedev goes up against Roman Safiullin in the Hangzhou semifinal. Daniil Medvedev comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Roman Safiullin is 6-4 across recent matches.

Daniil Medvedev is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Medvedev around 68%. Medvedev comes in off a compressed schedule; Safiullin comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Medvedev — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.