Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas meet in the round of 16 at Shanghai on Wednesday. Daniil Medvedev has won 9 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Stefanos Tsitsipas has won 3 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Medvedev — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.