Toronto · R64 · Hard · best of 3 · Aug 5, 2026, 4:40 PM UTC

Daria Kasatkina vs. Elena Rybakina — result and pick review

By The Maiden Desk · August 5, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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Result

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Elena Rybakina won 6-3 5-7 6-4

Nailed it. We had Elena Rybakina at 90% before the match, and Elena Rybakina won 6-3 5-7 6-4.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Daria Kasatkina goes up against Elena Rybakina in the Toronto round of 64. Elena Rybakina comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Daria Kasatkina has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.

The serve is where this match separates: Rybakina has been winning 70.1% of first-serve points to Kasatkina's 59%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Kasatkina needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

The numbers behind the pick

Surface ratings

Hard rating

Daria Kasatkina

1732

Elena Rybakina

2165

Overall rating

Daria Kasatkina

1786

Elena Rybakina

2147

Serve

Serve (last 52 weeks)	Daria Kasatkina	Elena Rybakina
1st serve in	67.8%	57.4%
1st serve points won	59%	70.1%
2nd serve points won	44.1%	46.6%

Form

Daria Kasatkina

5–5

Elena Rybakina

6–4

The rest of the numbers

This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.

What Pro unlocks

Frequently asked questions

Who won Daria Kasatkina vs Elena Rybakina at Toronto?: Elena Rybakina won 6-3 5-7 6-4.
Was the Daria Kasatkina vs Elena Rybakina prediction correct?: Nailed it. We had Elena Rybakina at 90% before the match, and Elena Rybakina won 6-3 5-7 6-4.