Tuesday's Wuhan round of 64 pits Daria Kasatkina against Jelena Ostapenko on hard. Jelena Ostapenko is 5-5 across recent matches. Daria Kasatkina is searching for form, having lost 5 in a row (3 of the last 10).

The serve is where this match separates: Ostapenko has been winning 64.9% of first-serve points to Kasatkina's 59.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Ostapenko is exactly that — a lean.