Daria Kasatkina and Peyton Stearns meet in the round of 16 at Strasbourg on Tuesday. Peyton Stearns comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Daria Kasatkina comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
The ledger favors Daria Kasatkina, 5-2 across their 7 meetings with Peyton Stearns. On clay specifically it reads 2-1 Kasatkina — worth more than the overall number this week.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Stearns is exactly that — a lean.