A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Daria Snigur goes up against Jasmine Paolini in the Beijing round of 64. Jasmine Paolini comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Daria Snigur has won 6 of the last 10.

Jasmine Paolini is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Paolini around 60%. The edge belongs to Paolini — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.