Sao Paulo · R32 · Hard · best of 3 · Sep 14, 2026, 8:30 PM UTC · Cancelled
Darja Semenistaja vs. Paula Badosa — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · September 14, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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Darja Semenistaja and Paula Badosa meet in the round of 32 at Sao Paulo on Monday. Paula Badosa has won 8 of the last 10. Darja Semenistaja limps in on a 7-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 65% versus 57.7% on first-serve points in Badosa's favor. Badosa should have enough here, though Semenistaja has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-210(67.8% Badosa)
Market-484(82.9% Badosa)
Sources: . These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Darja Semenistaja
1499
Paula Badosa
1778
Overall rating
Darja Semenistaja
1590
Paula Badosa
1870
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Darja Semenistaja
Paula Badosa
1st serve in
65.3%
60.5%
1st serve points won
57.7%
65%
2nd serve points won
46%
45.2%
Form
Darja Semenistaja
3–7
Paula Badosa
8–2
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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Who is predicted to win Darja Semenistaja vs Paula Badosa?
Maiden gives Paula Badosa a 68% chance to beat Darja Semenistaja in the Sao Paulo round of 32 on September 14, 2026.
How confident is the Paula Badosa pick?
68% is a “Confident” tier pick. When we make a pick around 68%, picks in that range have won 76% of the time (96 so far). See the track record page for the full table.