Thursday's Cincinnati first round pits Dayana Yastremska against Tatjana Maria on hard. Dayana Yastremska has won 6 of the last 10. Tatjana Maria is 7-3 across recent matches.

Dayana Yastremska simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Yastremska — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.