Los Cabos · R16 · Hard · best of 3 · Jul 30, 2026, 2:30 AM UTC

Denis Shapovalov vs. Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez — result and pick review

By The Maiden Desk · July 30, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

Share result

Result

✓ Pick right

Denis Shapovalov won 6-3 6-2

Nailed it. We had Denis Shapovalov at 56% before the match, and Denis Shapovalov won 6-3 6-2.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Denis Shapovalov goes up against Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez in the Los Cabos round of 16. Denis Shapovalov comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten.

Shapovalov's 74.7% behind the first serve (against 69.9% for Mendez) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Shapovalov is running on fumes after a brutal stretch of scheduling; Mendez arrives with very little recovery time. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Shapovalov is exactly that — a lean.

The numbers behind the pick

Surface ratings

Hard rating

Denis Shapovalov

1894

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

1663

Overall rating

Denis Shapovalov

1859

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

1638

Serve

Serve (last 52 weeks)	Denis Shapovalov	Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
1st serve in	58.7%	61.4%
1st serve points won	74.7%	69.9%
2nd serve points won	50%	51.2%

Form

Denis Shapovalov

3–7

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

6–4

The rest of the numbers

This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.

What Pro unlocks

Tomorrow's card, before the first ball

One email each morning with the day's free picks in full, tennis included, published before play starts and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.

Frequently asked questions

Who won Denis Shapovalov vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez at Los Cabos?: Denis Shapovalov won 6-3 6-2.
Was the Denis Shapovalov vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez prediction correct?: Nailed it. We had Denis Shapovalov at 56% before the match, and Denis Shapovalov won 6-3 6-2.