Denis Shapovalov and Tallon Griekspoor meet in the round of 32 at Chengdu on Thursday. Denis Shapovalov has won 7 of the last 10. Tallon Griekspoor comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Shapovalov is exactly that — a lean.