Thursday's Wuhan round of 16 pits Diana Shnaider against Karolina Muchova on hard. Karolina Muchova has won 7 of the last 10. Diana Shnaider has won 6 of the last 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Muchova — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.