Saturday's Seville semifinal pits Dusan Lajovic against Max Alcala Gurri on clay. Dusan Lajovic has won 4 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Max Alcala Gurri is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.
The serve is where this match separates: Lajovic has been winning 67% of first-serve points to Gurri's 61.9%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Lajovic comes in off a compressed schedule; Gurri comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Lajovic is exactly that — a lean.
The numbers behind the pick
Serve
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Dusan Lajovic | Max Alcala Gurri |
|---|
| 1st serve in | 67% | 69.9% |
| 1st serve points won | 67% | 61.9% |
| 2nd serve points won | 50.7% | 45.9% |
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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