Thursday's Seoul round of 16 pits Dylan Hara Friend Jay against Sho Shimabukuro on hard. Dylan Hara Friend Jay is 7-3 across recent matches. Sho Shimabukuro has won 4 of the last 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Jay is exactly that — a lean.