A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Edas Butvilas goes up against Harold Mayot in the St. Tropez round of 16. Harold Mayot has won 7 of the last 10. Edas Butvilas is 7-3 across recent matches.

Harold Mayot is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Mayot around 53%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Mayot is exactly that — a lean.