A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Edas Butvilas goes up against Moez Echargui in the Porto round of 16. Edas Butvilas comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Moez Echargui has won 6 of the last 10.

Edas Butvilas is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Butvilas around 62%. Butvilas comes in off a compressed schedule; Echargui comes in off a compressed schedule. Butvilas should have enough here, though Echargui has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.