Wednesday's US Open round of 64 pits Ekaterina Alexandrova against Kimberly Birrell on hard. Ekaterina Alexandrova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Kimberly Birrell comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Alexandrova.