Wuhan · R64 · Hard · best of 3 · Oct 12, 2026, 2:00 AM UTC
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Leylah Fernandez — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · October 12, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Ekaterina Alexandrova goes up against Leylah Fernandez in the Wuhan round of 64. Ekaterina Alexandrova is 6-4 across recent matches. Leylah Fernandez comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Alexandrova gets the nod on the finest of margins.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-105(51.3% Alexandrova)
Market-110(52.5% Alexandrova)
Sources: Market price (via our tennis data provider). These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Ekaterina Alexandrova
1830
Leylah Fernandez
1823
Overall rating
Ekaterina Alexandrova
1873
Leylah Fernandez
1834
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Leylah Fernandez
1st serve in
58.9%
61.8%
1st serve points won
67.1%
64.8%
2nd serve points won
43%
46.3%
Form
Ekaterina Alexandrova
6–4
Leylah Fernandez
7–3
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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Who is predicted to win Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Leylah Fernandez?
Maiden gives Ekaterina Alexandrova a 51% chance to beat Leylah Fernandez in the Wuhan round of 64 on October 12, 2026.
How confident is the Ekaterina Alexandrova pick?
51% is a “Lean” tier pick. When we make a pick around 51%, picks in that range have won 55% of the time (177 so far). See the track record page for the full table.