Ekaterina Alexandrova and Marta Kostyuk meet in the round of 16 at Ningbo on Wednesday. Marta Kostyuk limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Ekaterina Alexandrova limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Kostyuk.