Thursday's Beijing quarterfinal pits Ekaterina Alexandrova against Mirra Andreeva on hard. Mirra Andreeva brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Ekaterina Alexandrova is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Andreeva — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.