A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Elena Rybakina goes up against Liudmila Samsonova in the Toronto round of 16. Elena Rybakina has won 6 of the last 10. Liudmila Samsonova is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.

Elena Rybakina simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. If Rybakina plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.