A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Elena Rybakina goes up against Naomi Osaka in the US Open round of 16. Elena Rybakina is rolling — 6 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Naomi Osaka comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.

Elena Rybakina is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Rybakina around 69%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Rybakina.