Thursday's Ningbo round of 16 pits Elena Rybakina against Polina Kudermetova on hard. Elena Rybakina has won 9 of the last 10. Polina Kudermetova comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

The serve is where this match separates: Rybakina has been winning 70% of first-serve points to Kudermetova's 65.2%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Kudermetova needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.