Elena Rybakina and Tatjana Maria meet in the round of 16 at London on Friday. Elena Rybakina is 6-4 across recent matches. Tatjana Maria is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.
Nothing separates them historically — the head-to-head sits at 1-1. On grass specifically it reads 1-0 Maria — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hold strength tells the story — 70.1% versus 65.7% on first-serve points in Rybakina's favor. Maria comes in off a compressed schedule. Rybakina should have enough here, though Maria has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
The numbers behind the pick
Serve
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Elena Rybakina | Tatjana Maria |
|---|
| 1st serve in | 57.4% | 56.7% |
| 1st serve points won | 70.1% | 65.7% |
| 2nd serve points won | 46.9% | 46% |
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
What Pro unlocksTomorrow's card, before the first ball
One email each morning with the day's free picks in full, tennis included, published before play starts and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.