Thursday's Tokyo round of 16 pits Elena Rybakina against Yulia Putintseva on hard. Elena Rybakina brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Yulia Putintseva comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

The serve is where this match separates: Rybakina has been winning 70% of first-serve points to Putintseva's 60%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. If Rybakina plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.