Tuesday's Jinan round of 32 pits Elias Ymer against Mattia Bellucci on hard. Mattia Bellucci has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Elias Ymer limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Bellucci.