A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Elias Ymer goes up against Pavel Kotov in the Shanghai round of 32. Pavel Kotov is 5-5 across recent matches. Elias Ymer has won 3 of the last 10.

Pavel Kotov simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Kotov should have enough here, though Ymer has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.