Wednesday's Toronto semifinal pits Elina Svitolina against Iga Swiatek on hard. Iga Swiatek is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Elina Svitolina has won 4 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Swiatek is exactly that — a lean.