Monday's Cincinnati round of 64 pits Elina Svitolina against Tereza Valentova on hard. Elina Svitolina is 6-4 across recent matches. Tereza Valentova has won 6 of the last 10.

Elina Svitolina is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Svitolina around 69%. The edge belongs to Svitolina — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.