Naomi Osaka won 4-6 6-4 6-3
We got this one right. Naomi Osaka was our 63% pick, and won 4-6 6-4 6-3.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Elisabetta Cocciaretto goes up against Naomi Osaka in the Washington quarterfinal. Naomi Osaka comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Elisabetta Cocciaretto comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Osaka has been winning 71.1% of first-serve points to Cocciaretto's 61.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Osaka — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Hard rating
Overall rating
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Elisabetta Cocciaretto | Naomi Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| 1st serve in | 65.7% | 58.7% |
| 1st serve points won | 61.1% | 71.1% |
| 2nd serve points won | 47.9% | 46.4% |
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
What Pro unlocksOne email each morning with the day's free picks in full, tennis included, published before play starts and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.