Friday's Beijing quarterfinal pits Elise Mertens against Iga Swiatek on hard. Iga Swiatek comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Elise Mertens has won 7 of the last 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Mertens comes in off a compressed schedule; Swiatek comes in off a compressed schedule. If Swiatek plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.