Monday's Ningbo round of 32 pits Elise Mertens against Leylah Fernandez on hard. Elise Mertens has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Leylah Fernandez comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Mertens fractionally more likely to land the big points.