Monterrey · SF · Hard · best of 3 · Aug 29, 2026, 1:30 AM UTC

Elise Mertens vs. Nikola Bartunkova — result and pick review

By The Maiden Desk · August 29, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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Result

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Elise Mertens won 1-6 6-4 6-2

We got this one right. Elise Mertens was our 55% pick, and won 1-6 6-4 6-2.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Elise Mertens goes up against Nikola Bartunkova in the Monterrey semifinal. Elise Mertens has won 6 of the last 10. Nikola Bartunkova is 6-4 across recent matches.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Mertens comes in off a compressed schedule; Bartunkova comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Mertens gets the nod on the finest of margins.

The numbers behind the pick

Surface ratings

Hard rating

Elise Mertens

1818

Nikola Bartunkova

1781

Overall rating

Elise Mertens

1911

Nikola Bartunkova

1876

Serve

Serve (last 52 weeks)	Elise Mertens	Nikola Bartunkova
1st serve in	59.6%	53.4%
1st serve points won	63.4%	68.1%
2nd serve points won	43.2%	45.8%

Form

Elise Mertens

6–4

Nikola Bartunkova

6–4

The rest of the numbers

This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.

What Pro unlocks

Frequently asked questions

Who won Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova at Monterrey?: Elise Mertens won 1-6 6-4 6-2.
Was the Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova prediction correct?: We got this one right. Elise Mertens was our 55% pick, and won 1-6 6-4 6-2.