Beijing · SF · Hard · best of 3 · Oct 10, 2026, 11:00 AM UTC
Elise Mertens vs Qinwen Zheng — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · October 10, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Elise Mertens goes up against Qinwen Zheng in the Beijing semifinal. Qinwen Zheng has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Elise Mertens is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.
The serve is where this match separates: Zheng has been winning 72.5% of first-serve points to Mertens's 63.5%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Mertens comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Zheng fractionally more likely to land the big points.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-134(57.2% Zheng)
Market-131(56.6% Zheng)
Sources: Market price (via our tennis data provider). These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Elise Mertens
1854
Qinwen Zheng
1966
Overall rating
Elise Mertens
1941
Qinwen Zheng
1955
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Elise Mertens
Qinwen Zheng
1st serve in
59.7%
53.3%
1st serve points won
63.5%
72.5%
2nd serve points won
43.2%
46%
Form
Elise Mertens
7–3
Qinwen Zheng
7–3
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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Who is predicted to win Elise Mertens vs Qinwen Zheng?
Maiden gives Qinwen Zheng a 57% chance to beat Elise Mertens in the Beijing semifinal on October 10, 2026.
How confident is the Qinwen Zheng pick?
57% is a “Lean” tier pick. When we make a pick around 57%, picks in that range have won 63% of the time (172 so far). See the track record page for the full table.