Monday's French Open first round pits Elise Mertens against Tatjana Maria on clay. Elise Mertens comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Tatjana Maria has won 5 of the last 10.
Elise Mertens leads the head-to-head 3-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 2-0 Mertens — worth more than the overall number this week.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Mertens is exactly that — a lean.