Thursday's Hagen round of 16 pits Elmer Moller against Raul Brancaccio on clay. Elmer Moller has won 7 of the last 10. Raul Brancaccio comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Elmer Moller simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Moller comes in off a compressed schedule; Brancaccio comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Moller fractionally more likely to land the big points.