Elmer Moller and Tristan Boyer meet in the round of 32 at Lisbon on Monday. Elmer Moller has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Tristan Boyer has won 4 of the last 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Moller fractionally more likely to land the big points.