Braga · SF · Clay · best of 3 · Oct 10, 2026, 11:30 AM UTC
Elmer Moller vs Vilius Gaubas — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · October 10, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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Elmer Moller and Vilius Gaubas meet in the semifinal at Braga on Saturday. Elmer Moller has won 4 in a row and 5 of the last 10 overall. Vilius Gaubas is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.
Elmer Moller simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Moller comes in off a compressed schedule; Gaubas comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Moller gets the nod on the finest of margins.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-106(51.5% Moller)
Market+120(45.4% Moller)
Sources: Market price (via our tennis data provider). These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Clay rating
Elmer Moller
1733
Vilius Gaubas
1629
Overall rating
Elmer Moller
1698
Vilius Gaubas
1654
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Elmer Moller
Vilius Gaubas
1st serve in
61%
66.8%
1st serve points won
64.1%
65.1%
2nd serve points won
46.2%
51%
Form
Elmer Moller
5–5
Vilius Gaubas
6–4
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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Who is predicted to win Elmer Moller vs Vilius Gaubas?
Maiden gives Elmer Moller a 52% chance to beat Vilius Gaubas in the Braga semifinal on October 10, 2026.
How confident is the Elmer Moller pick?
52% is a “Lean” tier pick. When we make a pick around 52%, picks in that range have won 55% of the time (532 so far). See the track record page for the full table.