A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Elsa Jacquemot goes up against Marie Bouzkova in the US Open first round. Marie Bouzkova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Elsa Jacquemot has dropped 2 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Bouzkova.