A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Elsa Jacquemot goes up against Mayar Sherif in the Hamburg round of 16. Mayar Sherif brings a 9-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Elsa Jacquemot has won 3 of the last 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Jacquemot comes in off a compressed schedule; Sherif comes in off a compressed schedule. If Sherif plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.