Elvina Kalieva and Kayla Day meet in the round of 32 at Guadalajara on Monday. Kayla Day is 3-7 across recent matches. Elvina Kalieva has dropped 4 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Day is exactly that — a lean.