Friday's Cincinnati first round pits Emiliana Arango against Venus Williams on hard. Emiliana Arango has dropped 2 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten. Venus Williams is searching for form, having lost 10 in a row (0 of the last 10).

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Arango is exactly that — a lean.