A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Emma Navarro goes up against Karolina Muchova in the US Open round of 32. Karolina Muchova comes in at 9 wins from the last ten. Emma Navarro is 6-4 across recent matches.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Muchova win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.