Thursday's Strasbourg quarterfinal pits Emma Navarro against Shuai Zhang on clay. Emma Navarro is rolling — 5 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play. Shuai Zhang has won 3 of the last 10.

Shuai Zhang leads the head-to-head 3-1, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Navarro — worth more than the overall number this week.

Emma Navarro is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Navarro around 59%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Navarro is exactly that — a lean.