A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Eva Lys goes up against Sofia Kenin in the Cincinnati first round. Eva Lys limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Sofia Kenin is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10).

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Lys fractionally more likely to land the big points.