A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Fabian Marozsan goes up against Michael Zheng in the US Open first round. Fabian Marozsan has won 5 of the last 10. Michael Zheng has won 6 of the last 10.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Marozsan fractionally more likely to land the big points.