Thursday's Hangzhou round of 32 pits Fajing Sun against Roman Safiullin on hard. Roman Safiullin limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Fajing Sun is 5-5 across recent matches.

The serve is where this match separates: Safiullin has been winning 72.2% of first-serve points to Sun's 69.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Safiullin.