A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Felipe Meligeni Alves goes up against Gustavo Heide in the Curitiba round of 16. Gustavo Heide comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Felipe Meligeni Alves has won 5 of the last 10.

Gustavo Heide is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Heide around 70%. Alves comes in off a compressed schedule; Heide comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Heide — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.