Curitiba · R16 · Clay · best of 3 · Sep 30, 2026, 4:30 PM UTC
Felipe Meligeni Alves vs. Gustavo Heide — result and pick review
By The Maiden Desk · September 30, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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Result
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Gustavo Heide won 6-3 6-4
This one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 70% on Gustavo Heide, who won 6-3 6-4.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Felipe Meligeni Alves goes up against Gustavo Heide in the Curitiba round of 16. Gustavo Heide comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Felipe Meligeni Alves has won 5 of the last 10.
Gustavo Heide is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Heide around 70%. Alves comes in off a compressed schedule; Heide comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Heide — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
The numbers behind the pick
Surface ratings
Clay rating
Felipe Meligeni Alves
1616
Gustavo Heide
1809
Overall rating
Felipe Meligeni Alves
1572
Gustavo Heide
1798
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Felipe Meligeni Alves
Gustavo Heide
1st serve in
65.4%
56.4%
1st serve points won
69.6%
71.3%
2nd serve points won
50.5%
52.8%
Form
Felipe Meligeni Alves
5–5
Gustavo Heide
7–3
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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