Shanghai · R32 · Hard · best of 3 · Oct 12, 2026, 4:10 AM UTC
Felix Auger Aliassime vs Pablo Carreno Busta — result and pick review
By The Maiden Desk · October 12, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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Result
✓ Pick right
Felix Auger Aliassime won 6-3 4-6 6-1
We got this one right. Felix Auger Aliassime was our 73% pick, and won 6-3 4-6 6-1.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Felix Auger Aliassime goes up against Pablo Carreno Busta in the Shanghai round of 32. Felix Auger Aliassime has won 6 of the last 10. Pablo Carreno Busta comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Aliassime's 75.5% behind the first serve (against 68.2% for Busta) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. If Aliassime plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
The numbers behind the pick
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Felix Auger Aliassime
1971
Pablo Carreno Busta
1764
Overall rating
Felix Auger Aliassime
2016
Pablo Carreno Busta
1843
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Felix Auger Aliassime
Pablo Carreno Busta
1st serve in
62.9%
65.4%
1st serve points won
75.5%
68.2%
2nd serve points won
49.6%
49.7%
Form
Felix Auger Aliassime
6–4
Pablo Carreno Busta
4–6
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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