Sunday's Cincinnati round of 64 pits Felix Auger Aliassime against Stefanos Tsitsipas on hard. Felix Auger Aliassime is 7-3 across recent matches. Stefanos Tsitsipas has won 7 of the last 10.
Felix Auger Aliassime simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Tsitsipas comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Aliassime.