Thursday's Vienna round of 16 pits Flavio Cobolli against Matteo Berrettini on hard. Matteo Berrettini has won 5 of the last 10. Flavio Cobolli is 5-5 across recent matches.

The serve is where this match separates: Berrettini has been winning 76.2% of first-serve points to Cobolli's 71%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Berrettini fractionally more likely to land the big points.